China’s Geopolitical Gambit: Ecological Civilization and a New World Order
Part Two
2. Ecological Civilization as Policy Regime
While the concept of ecological civilization has been a common feature of Chinese academic discourse since the 1980s, it only entered political planning in 2007 with the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC). Written into the Party Constitution in 2012 under Xi Jinping, it became a central feature of national policy. Over the past decade, the concept has been closely applied to the need for state intervention in maintaining environmental protection and the pursuit of Chinese rejuvenation. This official discourse foregrounds China’s efforts to transition beyond fossil fuels and underlies the country’s broader geopolitical efforts.
Ecological civilization has gained considerable momentum in recent years as a guiding feature of Chinese policymaking linked to initiatives that overlap national parks, carbon markets, and urban planning. Beijing’s change of discourse away from an exclusive focus on industrial development has led to national policies aimed at comprehensive ecological protection, pollution prevention, and environmental reform. This includes having the main components of ecological civilization in place by 2035, establishing a “beautiful China” by 2050, and reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2060 (Hanson, 2019).
Officially enshrined within the Chinese Constitution in 2018 during the 13th National People's Congress (NPC), President Xi Jinping has personally promoted ecological civilization as a critical part of his mandate, including amendments to state and party constitutions. Ecological civilization is closely linked with Xi Jinping Thought on socialism with Chinese characteristics and is now viewed as a policy framework for shaping China’s long-term development. Beyond socialist modernization (2020–2035) and China’s BRI, ecological civilization frames Xi’s vision on becoming strong, prosperous and harmonious (2035–2050).
Beginning in the 2000s, the CPC shifted its discourse away from purely economic development toward a more comprehensive focus on social and environmental sustainability (Harrell, 2023). Indeed, ecological civilization represents a policy realignment for President Xi and the CPC and might be best summarized by the Central Committee and the State Council (2015) this way:
The development of ecological civilization is an essential part of the socialist undertaking with Chinese characteristics. It is vital to the people's wellbeing and the future of the Chinese nation and the realization of the Two Centenary Goals, and the Chinese Dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. The CPC Central Committee and the State Council attach great importance to the development of ecological civilization. A series of major decisions and plans have been unveiled in this regard. Considerable progress and positive achievements have been made in the development of ecological civilization. From an overall perspective, however, the development of ecological civilization in China still falls behind economic and social development. Resource constraints are tightening, environmental pollution remains severe, and the ecosystem is deteriorating. The contradictions between development and population as well as resources and environment are increasingly prominent, which have become a serious bottleneck hindering sustainable economic and social development.
Becoming especially marked as a policy ideal over the past two decades, the idea of ecological civilization has been a key feature of Chinese political discourse. In fact, ecological civilization refers to more than just environmental governance or green economic development. As a policy regime, ecological civilization represents both an ideological goal and pragmatic instrument for shaping Chinese development. Broadly construed, ecological civilization reflects a synthesis of theories and ideas on economic, political, and technological transformation in the development of Chinese rejuvenation.
3. Ecological Civilization as Geopolitical Gambit
More than an environmental program, ecological civilization is a feature of a carefully calibrated economic and geopolitical gambit. Fuelled by cost-effective, sustainable, and scalable infrastructure and manufacturing systems, China’s seeks is to remake the global economy around leading-edge innovation. By funding green infrastructure projects and promoting a shared responsibility for combating climate change, China appeals to nations seeking alternatives to Western economic hegemony.
Much like the ancient Silk Road, Chinese grand strategy is designed with the purpose of modernizing and re-constituting the Eurasian regional order. The nation’s commitment to climb the global value chain is closely tied to its broader ambition for global centrality in an increasingly multipolar world order (Hansen et al., 2018; Geall & Ely, 2018). This strategy seeks to leverage China’s economic power to build a tight network of economic, cultural, and political relations. Building on advancements in high-speed rail, EVs, battery storage, and next-generation nuclear energy, China aims to establish the technological foundations for a global economic order centered around its leadership.
The fulcrum of Chinese grand strategy is found in the country’s comprehensive investments across its enormous BRI program. Linking Asia, Africa and Europe across a common network of ports, pipelines, rail, and shipping corridors, China’s New Silk Road endeavours to capture the trade networks of the 21st century. China's economic reach already extends well beyond its borders, reinforcing its role as a cornerstone of the world’s global supply chains. As the world’s only manufacturing superpower, China’s economy exerts a gravitational hold on global trade, particularly trade across the Global South.
BRI figures strongly in international applications of ecological civilization (Mol, 2006). Ecological civilization is framed by urbanization, land-use planning, and a Chinese conception of smart cities. Rather than focusing on conservation via sequestration or climate mitigation alone, China’s infrastructure-driven solutions include energy transitions toward green and renewable sources such as large-scale afforestation projects. This overlaps forestry engineering to offset carbon pollution. Much like the country’s mass urbanization, large-scale tree planting has become a routine feature of the broader engineered environment. China has planted more trees than the rest of the world combined, nearly doubling its forest from 115 million hectares in 1981 to 220 million in 2020 (Zinda et al. 2018). In 2020, China initiated a national park system with ten national pilot sites and enhanced protection of wetlands along the Yangtze River, as well as migratory bird habitats in coastal regions.
At the level of global policymaking, ecological civilization provides a strategic discourse for enhancing Chinese leadership. In contrast to the economic and geopolitical retreat of the United States and other Western nations, Beijing has actively positioned itself as a global policy leader on climate change, particularly on issues overlapping sustainability, economic integration, and technological innovation. China’s commitment to phasing out carbon-intensive industries aligns with the country’s broader strategy of economic modernization while reinforcing its geopolitical influence around the world.
Beijing promotes ecological civilization on the global stage in and through existing multilateral platforms and its own expanding sphere of influence. China’s involvement in international organizations is now significantly enhancing its share of global influence (Rodenbiker, 2023). As a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, China holds considerable leverage in managing issues related to international peace and security. Additionally, its active participation in major international forums such as the G20 and the World Trade Organization (WTO) has strengthened its position as a key global player, allowing it to shape international norms and policies. This growing diplomatic heft is further supported by the country’s engagement in global peacekeeping operations, showcasing its commitment to promoting global security.
According to Chinese planners, “China has no desire to export its ideology and no intention to impose its development model on other countries” (The Belt and Road Initiative Progress, Contributions and Prospects, 2019). Nonetheless, in practice, ecological civilization translates as a vision for environmental stewardship that is distinct from Western approaches to climate change. This ambition has yielded significant success, exemplified by China’s role in brokering the United Nations (UN) Global Biodiversity Framework. Through active diplomatic engagement in international organizations, particularly the UN, China continues to shape global governance on critical issues such as climate change and sustainable development.
In the evolving landscape of global governance, institutions are being forced to recalibrate as China’s rise resets international power dynamics. Leveraging its manufacturing capacity, China has extended its geopolitical influence through a complex web of institutions and trade agreements. These include the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the New Development Bank (NDB), the Global Development Initiative and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
Technological leadership is increasingly central to enhancing Beijing’s geostrategic efforts on climate change. Leveraging its strategic focus on innovation through initiatives like Made in China 2025, Beijing has prioritized AI, robotics, quantum computing, and biotechnology as strategic levers of statecraft. Building on Chinese grand strategy, China now leads in the purchase and application of industrial robotics and is rapidly advancing in autonomous vehicles, 5G networks, and semiconductors. Supported by massive state investments, subsidies, and a data ecosystem rooted to the country’s tech giants, Huawei, Tencent, and Baidu, China wields enormous influence across the Global South.
Chinese policy and planning on ecological civilization elide a strategy focused on advancing domestic technological development with extensive foreign direct investment (FDI) (Fu, 2020; Nedopil, 2023; ChinaPower Project; 2023). Indeed, China’s expanding influence over developing economies is set to expand dramatically. By the end of this century, more than 80% of the world’s population will live in Asia or Africa (Ritchie, 2019). Chinese planners are now set to leverage renewables and nuclear energy in driving an “urban age” across the Global South. This includes FDI to support green BRI developments in hydropower, renewables, and nuclear technologies. Chinese companies are involved in building some thirty nuclear power reactors across BRI countries as part of China's broader strategy to export its nuclear technology and strengthen energy cooperation with partner nations. This also includes a manufacturing sector that is already at the cutting edge. China is now the world’s largest trading nation, with bilateral agreements with over a hundred countries, including twenty-two free-trade agreements.
A New Global Balance of Power
For Xi and many political leaders in the Global South, the decline of US influence represent a strategic opportunity to advance a new model of economic integration. Recent comments by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding "changes not seen in a century," reflect a strategic shift in the global balance of power in which America’s unipolar order is unwinding. Having surpassed the United States to become both the world’s largest economy (in purchasing power parity terms) and the world’s largest exporting nation, Chinese grand strategy is now calibrated around quality improvement while maintaining industrial capacity.
Chinese manufacturing will soon account for 45% of global manufacturing, or more than all developed countries put together (UNIDO, 2024). In addition to expanding the country’s industrial capacity, Beijing has focused its financial investments on dominating frontier innovation across an expanding global network. As the world’s manufacturing and trade hub, China now serves as a critical node in global commerce, fostering economic interdependence that grants China significant political influence over nations reliant on its production capabilities. By integrating ecological civilization into its geostrategic vision, China combines its vast domestic market and targeted investments with a regionally interconnected trade system.
China’s enormous transformation from a poor agrarian economy into a manufacturing juggernaut is reshaping the global order. China’s pursuit of global leadership is reflected in its rising heft amongst emerging economies across the Global South. Beyond US hegemony and the dominance of a single nation, power is becoming distributed across a multipolar system. This geopolitical transformation has amplified China’s standing on the world stage, allowing it to wield substantial soft power in conjunction with its economic and diplomatic influence.
Given its enormous economic success, Chinese grand strategy is now beginning to redefine the global order, shaping a transmodern or trans-Western vision of development (Dussel 2012). China’s manufacturing sector spans shipping, steel, electronics, textiles, pharmaceuticals, agricultural machinery, and clean energy technologies. With dominance in energy technologies and their supply chains, China’s grand strategy will increasingly provide it with a capacity to steer global economic development. Although Beijing does not explicitly seek to export its economic model or use ecological civilization as a tool of “imperial” statecraft, the sheer scale of its industrial capacity underscores its growing global influence.
Enhanced scrutiny of Chinese innovation across Western markets, coupled with restrictions on exports of critical components, has intensified competition across frontier industries. Chinese government planners now face significant hurdles, including technological bottlenecks in semiconductors and high-end chip manufacturing, areas where it has remained reliant on imports from the United States, Japan, and Taiwan, and elsewhere. Despite these challenges, China’s relentless pursuit of advanced technology underscores its determination to move to the centre of the global order.
In fact, Chinese economic expansion has triggered geopolitical competition with the United States and other advanced economies over intellectual property (IP), technological discovery, and the future of the global order. Not surprisingly, the expansion of China’s technology ecosystem is at the heart of rising friction with Western governments. Leaders across the United States and Europe view China’s achievements as a threat to their geopolitical dominance. As the world’s two largest economies, both the US and China are leveraging their immense industrial and financial resources to compete for dominance in frontier technologies such as AI and robotics. While Beijing prioritizes advanced manufacturing and its expansive supply-chain ecosystem, Washington—facing economic stagnation and declining global influence—has focused on frontier technologies as the core of a strategic effort to re-industrialize the US economy. Under President Donald Trump, the US is retrenching in a bid to rebuild.